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The Odds of My Synchronicity |
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Occurring By Chance |
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 You don't need to do the math to see that the probability of
turning on a TV at random and hearing Moon River is extremely small. An exact figure would
not be possible I believe; but it is possible to calculate an approximation.
The chart below displays the events and a description of what needs to be
calculated. |
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The
Five Events |
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Made the Synchronicity Happen |
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| Event 1: |
I climbed out of
bed that morning. |
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Probability
Problem: Calculate the probability getting out of bed at
any particular hour, minute, and second in the morning at
random. |
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| Event 2: |
I immediately turned on the TV. |
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Probability
Problem:
Calculate the probability that I would choose at random to turn on the TV
immediately after getting out of bed. |
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| Event 3: |
The TV happened to
be on just the right
channel. |
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Probability
Problem:
Calculate the probability of turning on a TV to any
particular cable channel at random? |
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| Event 4: |
The movie "Breakfast at Tiffany's"
just happens to be on TV. |
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Probability
Problem: Calculate the probability that
the movie "Breakfast at Tiffany's" would be playing on cable at any
particular time in the morning at random? |
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| Event 5: |
The song "Moon River"
just happened to start playing from the
very beginning. |
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Probability
Problem: Calculate the probability of randomly
turning on the TV and hearing a song play from the very beginning. |
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I climbed out of bed in the
morning and immediately turned on the TV. Because the TV was already set on the correct
channel by pure coincidence, the movie "Breakfast at Tiffany's" came on at
just the point in the movie where the song "Moon River" began to play. |
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Probability
Question: Calculate the probability of getting out of bed
in the morning at random and deciding to immediately turn on the
TV and then immediately hearing the song "Moon River" from the very beginning
in the movie called "Breakfast at Tiffany's" by pure coincidence? |
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The Probability
Equations Used In My Calculations
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(the
number
of ways that the event can occur) |
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(the
number
of possible outcomes of the event) |
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| P(overall) = |
P(event
1) X P(event 2) X P(event
3) X P(event 4) X P(event
5) |
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= |
P(out of bed)
X P(turn on TV) X P(right channel)
X |
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P(movieTiffany on)
X P(Moon River) |
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Calculating
The Probability of Each Event
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P(bed) = |
The
probability that I would get out of bed at
exactly the right time |
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| Event 1:
Get out of bed in the morning. |
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Conditions:
I don't know what time it was when I got out of bed that morning on July 2, 2002. I have an alarm clock near my bed; but I don't always look at it when I get out of bed. Even if I did look at it, I wouldn't have remembered what time it was. And I don't set my alarm clock anymore because I don't have a job. I don't always get out of bed at the same time every morning. I am disabled with manic depression and living on Social Security disability, so I don't have a 9-to-5 job or set my alarm clock for the morning. I wake up and climb out of bed whenever I want to. And this usually depends upon when I fell asleep the night before. But I have sleep problems
(apnea, insomnia, mania) so I don't wake up or climb out of bed at the same time every morning. Some days I don't sleep or go to bed at all. But the vast majority of the time, I get out of bed somewhere between 8 am and 10 am. |
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| Question:
What is the probability of me getting out of bed at any particular second between 8 am and 10 am? |
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Solution: There are 3600 seconds per hour and 7200 seconds in two hours. The probability of getting out of bed at any particular second between
8 -10 am is: |
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(the
number
of times that I get out of bed every morning) |
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(the
number
of possible times that I can get out of bed
every morning) |
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P(bed) = 1 / 7200
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P(TV) = |
The
probability that I would turn the TV on at
exactly the right time |
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| Event 2:
Immediately turn on the TV. |
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Conditions:
My morning ritual of getting up in the morning is very routine. The moment I am out of bed, I immediately have three things
to do and I don't always do them in the same order. (1) Head for the bathroom. (2) Turn on the TV. (3) Put on my clothes. It is equally likely that I will immediately do any one of these three things first, depending on certain conditions. So, in mathematical terms, for every three mornings, I immediately turn on the TV first. |
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Question:
What is the probability of me immediately turning on the TV when I get out of bed in the morning? |
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Solution:
I estimate that about one third of the time, I immediately turn on the TV. That's 1 morning out of every 3 mornings. |
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(the
number
of times that I immediately "turn on the TV"
after getting out of bed) |
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(the number
of possible "immediate things I must to do" whenever I get out of bed) |
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P(TV) = 1 / 3
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P(channel) = |
The
probability that the TV set would already be set
at exactly the right channel |
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| Event 3: The TV is on the correct
channel by coincidence. |
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Conditions:
I didn't know which cable channel my TV was already set to when I turned on the TV. But
the answer to this question is not needed to calculate this probability.
It can be assumed that whatever channel it was randomly on, it is equally likely that it could have been some other channel. I have over 100 channels on cable
(Comcast) and most of it is garbage in my opinion.
Because of this, there are only 11 channels on cable that I watch and
which I have my remote control programmed for. I don't watch anything outside of those channels. |
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| Question:
What is the probability of my TV set being on any particular
channel at random? |
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Solution:
I only watch 11 cable channels and anyone of them could have equally been the channel that came on that morning. |
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(the
number
of cable channels that the movie appeared on that morning) |
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(the number of possible cable
channels that could have appeared) |
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| P(channel) =
1 / 11 |
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P(Tiffany) = |
The
probability that the movie "Breakfast at
Tiffany's" would happen to be playing on that
channel at exactly that time. |
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| Event 4:
The movie Breakfast at Tiffany's comes on TV. |
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Conditions:
I have never seen the movie Breakfast at Tiffany's before. And when I turned on the TV that morning and
heard Moon River begin to play, I was so shocked at what I was hearing that I was focused on the screen for a few moments. I do remember thinking at that time that
the movie looked black and white. I do know that I was
listening to Henri Mancini's orchestra playing Moon River. At the time, I didn't check the TV listings on cable or the internet to verify
which the movie was. And once the song was over, I
ignored the movie and thought about my mother. After
this, I don't remember exactly what I did (I
probably left the house), but I know I didn't watch TV.
And it was weeks later that I decided to find out what movie it was. At that time, I searched through cable and internet resources and discovered
that it was the 1961 movie Breakfast at Tiffany's. Nevertheless, for me to calculate the exact probability that Breakfast at Tiffany's would come on July 2, 2002 between 8 am and 10 am
(Pacific), I need to do much more research - which I will do over time
(and it may take some time). But to get an exact calculation, I need the following
statistic: |
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For a single time period
(either: a year, or a month, or a week, or a day), how many times does the movie Breakfast at Tiffany's play on cable during that time. |
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My
main purpose here is to demonstrate how improbable it is for this
coincidence and the overall event to occur. Because I cannot use actual statistics until they are researched,
I will use a "test" statistic which will
be exaggerated to increasing the likelihood of a
successful outcome (i.e., turning on the TV to
the movie Breakfast at Tiffany's) for the
purposes of demonstrating that even in favorable and
exaggerated conditions, the probability of it
happening is still astronomical. So, for the sake of continuing with this problem, let's assume the following: |
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Test
statistic 1: During the week of July 1 - 7, 2002, between 9:30 am and 11:30 am, suppose Breakfast at Tiffany's played for 5 days that week on one of my favorite 11 channels. |
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Question:
Using the test statistic 1, what is the probability of the movie Breakfast at Tiffany's
coming on my TV set when I turned it on immediately after
getting out of bed at any random time between 8 am and 10 pm on July 2, 2002? |
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Solution:
Using test statistic 1, Breakfast at Tiffany's played for 5 straight days during the week of July 1 - 7, 2002, between 9:30 am and 11:30 am on one of my
11 favorite channels. This means that during the week between 8 am to 10 am, 30 minutes of Breakfast at Tiffany's was on 5 times - for a total of 2.5 hours. Each morning has around 5 hours, so each week has 35 possible hours. |
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(the
number
of hours that the movie "Breakfast at
Tiffany's" played |
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that week on my
cable channels between 8am-10pm) |
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(the
number
of hours in the week between 8 am and 10 am) |
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| P(Tiffany) =
2.5 / 35
= 1 / 14 |
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P(Moon River) = |
The
probability that the song "Moon River" would be
playing in the movie "Breakfast at Tiffany's" at
exactly the right time. |
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| Event 5: The song Moon River plays from the
beginning. |
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Conditions:
To calculate the exact probability of hearing Moon River from the beginning in the movie Breakfast from Tiffany's, I need to do more research to find out how long the movie is. But lets assume that the movie Breakfast at Tiffany's is exactly 1 1/2 hours long. |
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Question:
What is the probability of hearing the song Moon River from the
beginning during the movie Breakfast at Tiffany's. |
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Solution:
Let us assume the movie's length is 1 1/2 hours = 90 minutes = 5400 seconds. Moon River begins to play at exactly one of those 5400 seconds. So, the probability of hitting that second is 1 out of 5400. |
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(the
number
of seconds at the very beginning of the song Moon River) |
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(the
number
of seconds in the movie "Breakfast at Tiffany's") |
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| P(Moon
River) = 1 / 5400 |
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P(Overall) = |
The
probability of getting out of bed at exactly the
right time and turning on the TV at exactly the
right time and seeing the movie "Breakfast at
Tiffany's" on exactly the right channel and
hearing the song "Moon River" at exactly the
right time in the movie. |
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The overall probability of (1)
getting out of bed in the morning and
(2)
turning on the TV set and (3) having the movie Breakfast at Tiffany's
come on and immediately begin to play Moon River from the
beginning is the product of the individual probabilities: |
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P(Overall)
= |
P(Bed)
X P(TV) X P(Channel)
X P(Tiffany's) X P(Moon River) |
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| P(Bed)
= |
1
/ 7000 |
| P(TV)
= |
1
/ 3 |
| P(Channel)
= |
1 / 11 |
| P(Tiffany's)
= |
1 / 14 |
| P(Moon River)
= |
1
/ 5400 |
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1 |
| P(Overall)
= |
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(7200
* 3 * 11 * 14 *
5400) |
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1 |
| P(Overall)
= |
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17962560000 |
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| P(Overall)
= |
1
in 17,962,560,000 |
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| P(Overall)
= |
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[The actual probability
is even higher because of the assumption of
favorable conditions for the movie.] |
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Conclusion:
Using the favorably weighted test statistic 1, the probability of climbing out of bed in the morning, immediately turning on the TV with the channel already happening to be on the right channel for the movie Breakfast at Tiffany's to come on and the song Moon River to play from the start is 1 in
17,962,560,000 chances!
Or you can say the odds are roughly 1 in 18 billion. And
this is assuming very favorable conditions. The actual probability is
even higher. The odds of being killed by space junk is 1 in 5
billion!
I
invite everyone to help me verify this statistic by letting me know
of any possible errors in the calculations and/or to help me find
cable listings for July 2002 to validate that the move Breakfast at
Tiffany's was playing on July 2, 2000 in the morning on Comcast Pacific. It
is more than likely Breakfast at Tiffany's, but I don't have any physical
evidence to prove it. I hope to someday
provide the exact probability or a better estimate of what I have
now. You can email me at webmaster@near-death.com.
Thank you.
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"A mind stretched by a new idea can never go back to its original dimensions." -
Oliver Wendell Holmes |
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Send comments
to: Kevin Williams
Copyright © 2007 Near-Death Experiences & the Afterlife
Last modified:
March 14, 2006 |
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