The Odds of My ADC Synchronicity Occurring By Chance 

  By Kevin Williams
Dice.

You don't need to do the math to understand that the probability of turning a TV on at random and hearing Moon River is extremely miniscule. An exact figure would not be possible I believe; but it is possible to calculate an approximation. The chart below displays the events and a description of what needs to be calculated. 

 
 Table of Contents
 
1. The Equations to Calculate Probability and Odds
2. The Events Which Made This "Moon River" Synchronicity Happen
3. Calculate the Probability of Waking Up and Getting Out of Bed at Exactly the Right Time
4. Calculate the Probability of Turning the TV on After Getting Out of Bed
5. Calculate the Probability of Turning the TV On with the Correct Channel Already Set
6. Calculate the Probability of "Breakfast at Tiffany's" Being on the TV Channel at That Time
7. Calculate the Probability of "Moon River" Playing On "Breakfast At Tiffany's" At Exactly the Right Time
8. Calculate the Probability and Odds of All These Events Occurring
9. Comparing the Odds of My "Moon River" Synchronicity with Being Struck By Lightning
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 1. The Equations to Calculate Probability and Odds
Odds Equation
 

The "odds" in favor of an event is the ratio of the number of ways the outcome CAN occur to the number of ways the outcome CANNOT occur.

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 2. The Events Which Made This "Moon River" Synchronicity Happen
 
Events  Probability of That Event Occurring
Getting out of bed
Event (Out of Bed) = The event of waking up and immediately getting out of bed in the morning between 8am and 10am
P (Out of Bed) = Calculate the probability of waking up and immediately getting out of bed in the morning between 8am and 10am
Turning the TV on 
Event (Turn TV on) = The event of turning the TV on immediately after getting out of bed
P  (Turn TV on) = Calculate the probability of turning the TV on immediately after getting out of bed
The correct TV channel
is on 
Event (Correct Channel) = The event that the TV happens to be set at just the correct channel that "Breakfast at Tiffany's" is playing on when the TV is turned on.
P (Correct Channel) = Calculate the probability that the TV happens to be set at just the correct channel that "Breakfast at Tiffany's" is playing on when the TV is turned on.
"Breakfast at Tiffany's"
is playing on the TV
Event (Tiffany on) = The event that the movie "Breakfast at Tiffany's" happens to be playing on the TV when when turned on
P (Tiffany on) = Calculate the probability that the movie "Breakfast at Tiffany's" happens to be playing on the TV when when turned on
"Moon River" is playing at the beginning of the song
Event (Moon River) = The event that the song "Moon River" happens to begin playing from the very beginning of the song
P (Moon River) = Calculate the probability that the song "Moon River" happens to begin playing from the very beginning of the song
I get out of bed and turn the TV on and "Breakfast at Tiffany's" is on and "Moon River" begins to play
Event (All) = The event of waking up, getting out of bed, turning the TV on, and "Breakfast at Tiffany's" is on, and "Moon River" begins to play from the beginning.
P (All) = Calculate the probability of waking up, getting out of bed, turning the TV on, and "Breakfast at Tiffany's" is on, and "Moon River" begins to play from the beginning
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 3. Calculate the Probability of Waking Up and Getting Out of Bed at Exactly the Right Time
 
  Conditions: I don't remember exactly what time it was when I got out of bed that morning on July 2, 2002. I didn't have a job at the time and I wasn't using an alarm clock. However, the vast majority of the time when I wake up and get out of bed is anywhere between 8 am and 10 am. And I am fairly sure this was the time frame that morning.
  Problem: What is the probability of waking up and getting out of bed at any particular minute between 8 am and 10 am?
  Solution:

There are 1200 seconds between 8 am and 10 am. The probability of getting out of bed at any particular minute between 8 -10 am is equal to the probability equation below:

 
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 4. Calculate the Probability of Turning the TV on After Getting Out of Bed
 
  Conditions: My morning ritual of getting up in the morning is very routine. The moment I am out of bed, I immediately have three things to do and I don't always do them in the same order. (1) Head for the bathroom. (2) Turn the TV on. (3) Put on my clothes. It is equally likely that I will immediately do any one of these three things first, depending on certain conditions. So, in mathematical terms, for every three mornings, I immediately turn on the TV first.
  Problem: What is the probability of turning the TV on after getting out of bed?
  Solution: I have estimate that about one third of the time, I immediately turn the TV on when I wake up and get out of bed. That is 1 out of every 3 mornings, I immediately turn the TV on. So, the probability equation is below:
 
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 5. Calculate the Probability of Turning the TV On with the Correct Channel Already Set
 
Conditions: I do not select a TV channel before I turn on the TV. I just turn it on to whatever channel it was set on the last time I shut the TV off. I have Comcast cable TV with hundreds of channels; but most of the channels are garbage in my opinion. However, there are only 11 channels that I like and regularly watch. I don't watch anything outside of those channels.
Problem: What is the probability of my TV already being set to the channel that "Breakfast at Tiffany's" happens to be on?
Solution: I only watch 11 cable channels and anyone of them could have equally been the channel that came on that morning. So the probability equation is below:
 
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 6. Calculate the Probability of "Breakfast at Tiffany's" Being on the TV Channel at That Time
 
  Conditions: At this time, I have never seen "Breakfast at Tiffany's" before. However, I certainly have heard the song "Moon River" many times. So when I turned the TV on that morning and heard the song begin to play, I was completely flabbergasted to say the least. That song was sung at my mother's memorial only days before. It was her song. And the night before, I had an awesome after-death communication of my mother when I spontaneously felt her enormous presence for about an hour. So waking up the next morning and hearing "Moon River" when I turned on the TV that morning was a coincidence of really beyond measure.
  Problem: For any given day of that month of July, 2002, what is the probability that "Breakfast at Tiffany's" would be playing on TV on that day?
  Solution: Getting an exact probability for this problem is virtually impossible because I would need to know exactly how many  days in July of 2002 the movie played. However, for the sake of getting at least an approximation, let us assume "Breakfast at Tiffany's played only once in that month of July. This is a fair assumption because the movies I watch normally don't repeat at another time in the same day or month. So the probability equation is below:
 
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 7. Calculate the Probability of "Moon River" Playing On "Breakfast At Tiffany's" At Exactly the Right Time
 
Conditions: When I woke up and turned the TV on, "Breakfast at Tiffany's" happened to be on at exactly at the time the song "Moon River" began to play.
Problem: What is the probability of "Moon River" playing from the beginning on "Breakfast at Tiffany's"?
Solution: The movie "Breakfast at Tiffany's" is 115 minutes long. The song "Moon River" is played in its instrumental version only two times in the movie. It plays one time during the film's opening titles, and another time at the end of the movie. So the probability equation is below:
 
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 8. Calculate the Probability and Odds of All These Events Occurring
 
Conditions: When I woke up, I immediately got out of bed and turned the TV on. The movie "Breakfast at Tiffany's" just happened to be on at that time. Immediately the song "Moon River" began to play from the very beginning.
Problem: What is the probability of waking up, immediately getting out of bed and turned the TV on and the movie "Breakfast at Tiffany's" happens to be on and immediately the song "Moon River" begins to play from the very beginning?
Solution: The probability equation is below:
 
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 9. Comparing the Odds of My "Moon River" Synchronicity with Being Struck By Lightning
 

In conclusion, the approximate odds of getting out of bed in the morning, turning the TV on, with the correct channel "Breakfast at Tiffany's" to be on and the song "Moon River" playing from the very beginning is approximately 1 in 6.5 million. This is an extremely long shot when you compare these odds with other odds. The odds of being struck by lightning is 1 in 5 million!

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