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By
Kevin Williams |
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You don't need
to do the math to understand that the
probability of turning a TV on at random
and hearing Moon River is extremely
miniscule. An exact figure would not
be possible I believe; but it is possible
to calculate an approximation. The chart
below displays the events and a description
of what needs to be calculated.
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Table of Contents |
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1. The Equations to Calculate Probability
and Odds |
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Odds Equation |
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The "odds"
in favor of an event is the ratio of
the number of ways the outcome CAN
occur to the number of ways the
outcome CANNOT occur.
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2.
The Events Which Made This "Moon River" Synchronicity
Happen |
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| Events |
Probability
of That Event Occurring |
| Getting
out of bed |
| Event
(Out of Bed) = |
The event of waking
up and immediately getting
out of bed in the morning
between 8am and 10am |
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P (Out of Bed) =
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Calculate the probability
of waking up and immediately
getting out of bed in
the morning between
8am and 10am |
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Turning
the TV on |
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Event (Turn TV on) = |
The event of turning
the TV on immediately
after getting out of
bed |
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P (Turn TV on)
= |
Calculate the probability
of turning the TV on
immediately after getting
out of bed |
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The correct TV channel
is
on |
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Event (Correct Channel)
= |
The event that the TV
happens to be set at
just the correct channel
that "Breakfast at Tiffany's"
is playing on when the
TV is turned on. |
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P (Correct Channel)
= |
Calculate the probability
that the TV happens
to be set at just the
correct channel that
"Breakfast at Tiffany's"
is playing on when the
TV is turned on. |
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"Breakfast at Tiffany's"
is playing on the TV |
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Event (Tiffany
on) = |
The event that
the movie "Breakfast
at Tiffany's"
happens to be
playing on the
TV when when
turned on |
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P (Tiffany on)
=
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Calculate the
probability
that the movie
"Breakfast at
Tiffany's" happens
to be playing
on the TV when
when turned
on |
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"Moon River" is playing at the
beginning of the song |
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Event (Moon
River) =
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The event that
the song "Moon
River" happens
to begin playing
from the very
beginning of
the song |
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P (Moon River)
= |
Calculate the
probability
that the song
"Moon River"
happens to begin
playing from
the very beginning
of the song |
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I get out of bed and turn the
TV on and "Breakfast at Tiffany's"
is on and "Moon River" begins
to play |
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Event (All)
= |
The event of
waking up, getting
out of bed,
turning the
TV on, and "Breakfast
at Tiffany's"
is on, and "Moon
River" begins
to play from
the beginning. |
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P (All) =
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Calculate the
probability
of waking up,
getting out
of bed, turning
the TV on, and
"Breakfast at
Tiffany's" is
on, and "Moon
River" begins
to play from
the beginning |
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3. Calculate the Probability of Waking Up and
Getting Out of Bed at Exactly the Right Time |
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Conditions: |
I don't remember exactly what
time it was when I got out of
bed that morning on July 2,
2002. I didn't have a job at
the time and I wasn't using
an alarm clock. However, the
vast majority of the time when
I wake up and get out of bed
is anywhere between 8 am and
10 am. And I am fairly
sure this was the time frame
that morning. |
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Problem: |
What is the probability of waking
up and getting out of bed at
any particular minute between
8 am and 10 am? |
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Solution: |
There
are 1200 seconds between 8 am
and 10 am. The probability of
getting out of bed at any particular
minute between 8 -10 am is equal
to the probability equation
below:
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4. Calculate the Probability of Turning the
TV on After Getting Out of Bed |
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Conditions: |
My morning ritual of getting
up in the morning is very routine.
The moment I am out of bed,
I immediately have three things
to do and I don't always do
them in the same order. (1)
Head for the bathroom. (2) Turn
the TV on. (3) Put on my clothes.
It is equally likely that I
will immediately do any one
of these three things first,
depending on certain conditions.
So, in mathematical terms, for
every three mornings, I immediately
turn on the TV first. |
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Problem: |
What is the probability of turning
the TV on after getting out
of bed? |
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Solution: |
I have estimate that about one
third of the time, I immediately
turn the TV on when I wake up
and get out of bed. That is
1 out of every 3 mornings, I
immediately turn the TV on.
So, the probability equation
is below: |
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5. Calculate the Probability of Turning the
TV On with the Correct Channel Already Set |
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Conditions: |
I do not select a TV channel
before I turn on the TV. I just
turn it on to whatever channel
it was set on the last time
I shut the TV off. I have Comcast
cable TV with hundreds of channels;
but most of the channels are
garbage in my opinion. However,
there are only 11 channels that
I like and regularly watch.
I don't watch anything outside
of those channels. |
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Problem: |
What is the probability of my
TV already being set to the
channel that "Breakfast at Tiffany's"
happens to be on? |
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Solution: |
I only watch 11 cable channels
and anyone of them could have
equally been the channel that
came on that morning. So the
probability equation is below: |
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6. Calculate the Probability of "Breakfast at
Tiffany's" Being on the TV Channel at That Time |
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Conditions: |
At this time, I have never seen
"Breakfast at Tiffany's" before.
However, I certainly have heard
the song "Moon River" many times.
So when I turned the TV on that
morning and heard the song begin
to play, I was completely flabbergasted
to say the least. That song
was sung at my mother's memorial
only days before. It was her
song. And the night before,
I had an awesome after-death
communication of my mother when
I spontaneously felt her enormous
presence for about an hour.
So waking up the next morning
and hearing "Moon River" when
I turned on the TV that morning
was a coincidence of really
beyond measure. |
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Problem: |
For any given day of that month
of July, 2002, what is the probability
that "Breakfast at Tiffany's"
would be playing on TV on that
day? |
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Solution: |
Getting
an exact probability for this
problem is virtually impossible
because I would need to know
exactly how many days
in July of 2002 the movie played.
However, for the sake of getting
at least an approximation, let
us assume "Breakfast at Tiffany's
played only once in that month
of July. This is a fair assumption
because the movies I watch normally
don't repeat at another time
in the same day or month. So
the probability equation is
below: |
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7. Calculate the Probability of "Moon River"
Playing On "Breakfast At Tiffany's" At Exactly
the Right Time |
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Conditions: |
When I woke up and turned the
TV on, "Breakfast at Tiffany's"
happened to be on at exactly
at the time the song "Moon River"
began to play. |
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Problem: |
What is the probability of "Moon
River" playing from the beginning
on "Breakfast at Tiffany's"? |
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Solution: |
The movie "Breakfast at Tiffany's"
is 115 minutes long. The song
"Moon River" is played in its
instrumental version only two
times in the movie. It plays
one time during the film's opening
titles, and another time at
the end of the movie. So the
probability equation is below: |
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8. Calculate the Probability and Odds of All These Events
Occurring |
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Conditions: |
When I woke up, I immediately
got out of bed and turned the
TV on. The movie "Breakfast
at Tiffany's" just happened
to be on at that time. Immediately
the song "Moon River" began
to play from the very beginning. |
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Problem: |
What is the probability of waking
up, immediately getting out
of bed and turned the TV on
and the movie "Breakfast at
Tiffany's" happens to be on
and immediately the song "Moon
River" begins to play from the
very beginning? |
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Solution: |
The probability equation is
below: |
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9. Comparing the Odds of My "Moon River"
Synchronicity with Being Struck By Lightning |
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In conclusion, the approximate
odds of getting out of bed in the morning, turning
the TV on, with the correct channel "Breakfast
at Tiffany's" to be on and the song "Moon River"
playing from the very beginning is approximately
1 in 6.6 million. This is an extremely long
shot when you compare these odds with other
odds. The odds of being struck by
lightning is 1 in 5 million!
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